Valday Club: Russia prepares to live under embargo for decades
According to Ivan Timofeyev, program director of Valday International Discussion Club, one of Russia's leading think tanks, and Dmitriy Birichevskiy, head of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Moscow is preparing to live under Western sanctions for decades.
The US, the European Union (EU) and its partners have imposed more than 20,000 sectoral and personal sanctions against Russia since 2014, and many foreign investors have started to leave the country.
'Sanctions against Russia: Now Forever?' organized by Valday in Moscow today'There is a perception that the sanctions are caused by the Ukrainian crisis in general, but we understand that the events that are happening now are part of our broader relations with the collective West,' Timofeyev said in the panel titled.
Timofeyev added that the Russian business world hopes that a diplomatic solution will be found sooner or later to the contradictions between Russia and the West on Ukraine, and that sanctions will be eased or lifted:
“No, our analysis and research says this is not true, there is no linear relationship between sanctions and political processes. So, yes, some agreements can be reached, some agreements can be reached on the diplomatic road, but this... It does not mean that the sanctions are linearly reduced, mitigated and so on. I would say that the Russian Federation will live in the sanctions regime for decades. We need to be ready for this.”
The Russian economy experienced the main shock of sanctions in early 2022, when the ruble rate fell below 100 rubles per US dollar and the stock market had to stop trading securities for almost a month.
Afterwards, the country's economy gradually returned to pre-crisis growth rates, but problems with export supply, payments, imports and technology continue.
Biriçevskiy said, “You are right that this is a story of decades. Regardless of the resolution process and its outcome of the crisis in Ukraine, it's actually just an excuse. Because the sanctions had been applied much earlier. 'Their aim is essentially such unfair competition,' he said.
The official said, “In terms of many sectors, no matter how difficult it is for both the banking system and the industry, they still force us to rebuild the entire structure of the economy and create a product with high added value within the country. In the early 90s, we thought we had oil and natural gas and that we would buy everything else from abroad. 'But it won't be like that anymore,' he said.
Noting that there are solutions gradually, but the process is painful, Biriçevskiy said, "The West sees everything, because sometimes it is not possible to hide everything. They are introducing new sanctions, new restrictions. This kind of spiral continues. I don't expect this to stop,” he commented.
Anastasya Lihachova, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics at the School of Economics of the National Research University, emphasized that the USA thinks that 'sanctions are not implemented' and will continue to impose restrictions in all areas that are not critical to the country's economy.
Adding that Russia's nuclear industry is 'under the sanctions' according to the USA and is already preparing to strengthen the sanctions against Rosatom, Lihachova said, "On the anniversary of the sanctions, there will be a package of 15, 16 and 17 sanctions on any date."
Likhacheva added that American sanctions agencies have accessed space intelligence data and are eyeing Russia's 'shadow' tanker fleet.